In a previous entry I wrote that one of the pushbacks on using predictive analytics in the planning process is that business users think their "expert opinion" is more accurate than a statistical algorithm.  Well, this week Information Builders issued a press release predicting the World Series winner based on the analysis of 40 years of historical data.

This would have been a "ho-hum" publicity stunt if they had picked the Yankees to win but instead they picked the Los Angeles Dodgers to win it all and in fact they predict the Yankees will lose to the Angels. 

This is in direct contrast to the "expert opinion" of 10 ESPN Analysts:

• 9 of 10 picked the Yankees to win the World Series at the start of the playoffs (lone defector picked the Cardinals)
• All 10 pick the Yankees to beat the Angles
• 5 of 10 pick Phillies to beat the Dodgers.

This sets us up for the battle of the century:

 vs.

OK, maybe battle of the century is an overstatement, but could this have a polarizing impact for predictive analytics?  Whatever the outcome this will give either the proponents or detractors of predictive analytics a real-life example to point to.  Regardless of the outcome this brings some timely attention to the potential of predictive analytics.  And for those of us with short attention spans we don't have to wait long for the results.  We will know the answer in just a few weeks.

I will certainly blog again about this when it is all said and done and the winner is crowned.  Who do you think is right, the experts or the numbers?